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Here’s a question that exposes one of the most dangerous myths in modern sales: How do you set the right pipeline creation target to consistently hit quota?

That’s exactly what Maryellen Soriano from New Jersey asked when she called into Ask Jeb. After crushing 134% of quota in her first year selling EdTech solutions—transitioning from owning her own childcare center to selling back into that same industry—she was being told she needed 11X pipeline to maintain her success.

If that number made you cringe, you’re not alone. The obsession with pipeline multipliers is creating more problems than it’s solving, and it’s time we had an honest conversation about what actually drives predictable revenue.

The Pipeline Myth That’s Killing Your Forecast

Most sales teams are drowning in fake pipeline, and it’s destroying their ability to forecast accurately. Leadership teams, especially in tech companies, consistently miss their numbers quarter after quarter because they’re obsessed with one question: “How much pipeline do we have?”

The real question should be: “How clean is our pipeline?”

Would you rather have 11X pipeline filled with lottery tickets, or 2X pipeline packed with qualified buyers? The answer should be obvious, but somehow we keep chasing vanity metrics instead of focusing on what converts.

Here’s the brutal truth: All pipeline opportunities are not equal.

Two Approaches to Pipeline Creation

There are two ways to approach pipeline creation, and only one of them actually works consistently.

Approach #1: Maximum Daily Prospecting (The Proven Method)

Don’t worry about how big your pipeline is. Worry about how much prospecting you’re doing, and run on a daily cadence of prospecting that maxes out the time you can spend every single day.

Prospect every day, every day, every day.

I have a block of time every morning for prospecting. Then I’m prospecting during any gap during the day. If there’s time between meetings, I’m doing outreach. Every single day I’m prospecting to the very max that I have time to prospect.

When you do this, you don’t have to worry about pipeline size because it takes care of itself. You never get on the desperation roller coaster because you never stop feeding the machine.

Approach #2: Pipeline Multiplier Obsession (The Broken Method)

This is where leadership teams fixate on having “5X pipeline” or “11X pipeline” because they think more is better. The problem? As soon as reps think they have “enough” pipeline, they quit prospecting. Then reality hits when half those opportunities were pipe dreams.

The Science of Pipeline: The Law of Replacement

If you want to look at pipeline like science rather than hope, you need to understand the Law of Replacement: You need to replace opportunities in your pipeline at a rate that is equal to or greater than your closing ratio.

Let me give you a real example of how this works. In a previous role, I had my numbers dialed in perfectly:

• I knew I needed 10 first-time appointments every week
• About 50% would move to follow-up appointments (5 deals)
• I’d close about 20% of those follow-ups (1 deal per week)
• It took me about 20 prospecting touches to generate 2 first-time appointments

Working backwards from one closed deal per week, I knew exactly what I needed to produce in terms of prospecting activity and first-time appointments to feed my pipeline consistently.

If I didn’t replace the deals that fell out every single week, I’d eventually end up with nothing.

What Makes a Real Pipeline Opportunity

Here’s where most organizations get it completely wrong. They’re stuffing their CRM with anything that moves and calling it “pipeline.”

A real pipeline opportunity requires a conversation. It’s not a form fill or a marketing lead or something someone else talked to and dumped in your CRM. You need to have qualified it yourself and made a decision that it belongs in your pipeline.

At Sales Gravy, we generate more than a thousand leads per month. Most of those don’t go directly into the pipe because nobody had a conversation with them. They go to the sales team for vetting and qualifying first.

The only leads that go straight into the pipeline are our “hot” leads. People who come in saying, “I have 30 salespeople and I need Fanatical Prospecting training right now.” Those people have pre-qualified themselves, and we close about 90% of them.

The Win Rate Reality Check

If you’re running win rates against junk that marketing stuffed into your pipeline, those numbers are meaningless. Your win rate should be calculated against deals you sent written offers to buy.

Here’s how I define a real win rate: Number of deals closed divided by number of proposals given.

Until you give someone a proposal, you haven’t asked them to buy. Everything before that is just conversation.

How to Build Predictable Pipeline

When you’re ready to get scientific about your pipeline, here’s the formula:

1. Define Your Time Period

Look at your pipeline on a 60-90 day rolling period, depending on your sales cycle. Don’t try to forecast a year out if your deals close in 60 days.

2. Assign Real Revenue Numbers

Every opportunity needs an accurate revenue number. Don’t inflate deals to hit your multiplier target—that’s just lying to yourself.

3. Calculate Probability by Deal, Not by Stage

Your CRM stages are fiction. A deal in “discovery” isn’t automatically 50% likely to close. Look at the evidence for each individual deal and assign probability based on what you actually know about their buying process, budget, and timeline.

4. Do the Math

Take your pipeline revenue and multiply by the probability of each deal closing. That’s your real forecast for the period.

Get disciplined about this process, and you’ll find you can predict your results with scary accuracy.

The Daily Discipline That Changes Everything

Here’s what separates elite performers like Maryellen from everyone else: They maximize their prospecting time every single day, regardless of how their pipeline looks.

When you hit 134% of quota, nobody cares what your pipeline multiplier was. They care about results.

The most effective approach is simple:

• Block time every morning for prospecting.
• Fill gaps throughout the day with outreach.
• Follow your proven process religiously.
• Never stop feeding the machine.

Stop Playing Pipeline Games

Most sales teams are playing games with their pipeline instead of focusing on what actually matters. They’re:

• Stuffing CRMs with unqualified leads to hit multiplier targets
• Chasing deals that were never real opportunities
• “Checking in” on pipe dreams instead of prospecting for new business
• Missing forecasts because their pipeline was built on hope, not evidence

Your Action Plan

If you’re a sales rep:

1. Maximize daily prospecting time regardless of current pipeline size.
2. Know your real closing ratios based on actual proposals, not marketing leads.
3. Be ruthless about qualification before putting deals in your pipeline.
4. Track what matters: first-time appointments, conversion rates, and revenue per proposal.

If you’re a sales leader:

1. Stop obsessing over pipeline multipliers and start focusing on pipeline quality.
2. Don’t let marketing stuff your CRM with unqualified leads that skew your metrics.
3. Coach reps on qualification standards rather than just demanding more pipeline.
4. Measure probability by deal evidence, not by arbitrary stage percentages.

The Bottom Line

Pipeline multipliers are vanity metrics that create false confidence and poor forecasting. Clean pipeline built through daily prospecting discipline and rigorous qualification creates predictable revenue.

The Law of Replacement isn’t just a concept—it’s your lifeline. Master it, and you’ll never worry about pipeline size again. Ignore it, and you’ll ride the desperation roller coaster every quarter.

Your commission check doesn’t care about your pipeline multiplier. It only cares about one thing: Did you close the deal or didn’t you?

The next time someone asks about your pipeline, don’t tell them how big it is. Tell them how clean it is. Because clean pipelines close deals, and dirty pipelines just create false hope.

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Learn the keys to developing a Fanatical Prospecting Mindset in Jeb Blount’s course: Fanatical Prospecting Essentials